TD1 in the next 12 hours?

2010 June 25

Low level circulation (LLC) encompassed by my awesome MS Paint skills. Second pass did a much better job defining a closed circulation. Looks like they are taking one more pass on their way back to the States.

Recon pass

Vis sat, 93L, Friday PM

Looks pretty healthy on the visible. 850-200 mb shear has weakened today, good outflow, fairly deep convection sitting right over the recon LLC fix. Really would be shocked if the NHC didn’t call this TD1 (or even TS Alex) in the next 12 hours or so. There is no doubt that they have been/will err on the side of caution, especially with it so close to land (I’m sure they’re trying hard not to name a borderline system solely out of the reaction it will garner along the Gulf coast and in the mass media) but I can’t fathom this system not being a TS before initial landfall in 36 hours. No use holding off if that’s the case.

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